Settlement vs Trial Value Comparison
Compare the expected net value of accepting a settlement offer with going to trial, after probabilities, legal fees, costs and time delay.
Is The Offer Better Than Going to Trial?
Enter the offer, the potential award, your chance of winning and the extra costs and delay of trial. The calculator compares expected net values and the break-even win probability. This is not legal advice.
Settlement vs Trial Estimator
Expected value weighs an uncertain award against a certain offer.
Understanding The Comparison
Key concepts for settlement decisions
Expected Value
Trial EV = Win Probability × Award × (1 − Fee) − Extra Costs. It averages possible outcomes.
Time Value
Money received later is worth less. Values are discounted by your rate over the months to payment.
Break-Even Probability
The win chance at which trial equals the settlement. If you believe your chance is lower, settling is favoured.
Beyond The Numbers
Consider certainty, stress, appeals, publicity and non-financial outcomes.
Typical Case Considerations
General factors. Real cases differ widely.
| Factor | Favours Settlement | Favours Trial | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uncertainty about outcome | High | Low | Weak evidence favours settling |
| Time to resolution | Long wait | Short wait | Discounting matters |
| Extra costs | High | Low | Cost-shifting rules vary |
| Stress tolerance | Low | High | Personal factor |
| Precedent or principle | Not needed | Important | Non-financial value |
| Decision Tool | Compare expected values | Add risk preference | Seek legal advice |
Settlement vs Trial Calculator FAQ
Answers to common questions about this calculator.
It depends on your chance of success, costs, delay and risk tolerance. This calculator gives a financial comparison only; consult a qualified lawyer.
It is the probability-weighted average outcome. A 50% chance at £100,000 has an expected value of £50,000.
Receiving money sooner has value because you can use or invest it, and the future is uncertain.
No. In some jurisdictions the loser pays part of the other side’s costs, which can change the result.