Predicted Grade Calculator Guide
Understand how teachers arrive at predicted grades for GCSEs and A-Levels, what evidence they draw on, and how those grades are used in UCAS applications.
How Predicted Grades Are Worked Out
Predicted grades are a teacher’s professional estimate of the final grade a student is likely to achieve in their GCSE or A-Level exams. They play a major role in UCAS applications, since final results are not yet known when university offers are made.
Mock Exam Performance
Mock exams, usually sat under exam-style conditions, are one of the strongest indicators teachers use. Consistent performance across mocks helps build a realistic picture of where a student is likely to land in the real exam.
Classwork and Coursework
Ongoing classwork, homework quality, and any assessed coursework or non-exam assessment feed into the overall picture, particularly for subjects where practical or extended written work forms part of the final grade.
Progress Against Target Grades
Schools often compare current performance against a data-driven target grade, generated from prior attainment such as Key Stage 2 or GCSE results, to judge whether a student is tracking above, at, or below expectation.
Teacher Professional Judgement
Ultimately, the predicted grade reflects a teacher’s overall judgement, combining the evidence above with their knowledge of the student’s work ethic, improvement trajectory, and how they typically perform under exam pressure.
Predicted Grades Quick Facts
Essential insights for GCSE and A-Level students
Evidence Used By Qualification Type
A quick overview of the kinds of evidence typically weighted most heavily when predicting grades for different qualifications.
| Qualification | Main Evidence Used | Who Sets The Prediction? | Where It’s Used |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCSE | Mock exams, classwork, target grade data. | Subject teacher. | School reports, sixth form applications. |
| A-Level | Mock exams, coursework/NEA, classroom performance. | Subject teacher. | UCAS applications, apprenticeship applications. |
| BTEC / Vocational | Completed assignment grades, unit assessments. | Course tutor. | UCAS applications, employer applications. |
| International Baccalaureate | Internal assessments, mock exam scores. | Subject teacher / IB coordinator. | UCAS and international university applications. |
Predicted Grades FAQ
Answers to the most frequently asked questions about predicted grades for GCSEs and A-Levels.
Predicted grades are usually based on a combination of mock exam results, classwork and coursework performance, progress against target grades, and a teacher’s professional judgement of what a student is likely to achieve in their final exams.
No. A target grade is often generated from prior attainment data, such as Key Stage 2 or GCSE results, and represents an expected baseline. A predicted grade is a teacher’s more personal assessment of likely final performance, which can be higher or lower than the target grade.
Yes, for UCAS applications in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, predicted grades are submitted as part of your UCAS reference and are used by universities to make conditional offer decisions before your final results are known.
Predicted grades submitted to UCAS are generally fixed once your application is sent, but schools can sometimes request an amendment if there is a clear reason, such as a significant change in performance. This is at the discretion of the school and UCAS.
If your final results fall short of your predicted grades, your firm or insurance university choice may not confirm your place, but you can still enter UCAS Clearing to find an alternative course, and many universities also consider Clearing applicants directly.